Overreaction Weekend

There is a popular theory in behavioral finance that states that markets tend to overreact to news in the short term (and underreact to news in the long term). Had I been a better student, and had it not been my final semester in the long nightmare that is earning an MBA part-time, I would be able to quote the names and university of the nerds that researched this idea to death and now call themselves Dr. as a reward for their fierce belief in both this theory and in the pure lunacy of leaving the academic world to actually get a real job. If you're really that interested in the specifics use google, otherwise just trust me that the legwork has been done. And trust me that the logic holds not only in the financial markets but also in the sporting (and therefore gambling) world.

Flash back to opening night of the baseball season. The two schmucks who announce ESPN games kept repeating idiotic things like, "The Mets can really make a statement to the rest of the National League with a win tonight". And they were serious. Like one game out of 162 really makes a statement, especially when the roster in game 1 will, without question, be significantly different for every team in the NL within three months of said game 1. Think maybe people overweight opening day a little?

Now jump ahead a few months to the NFL preseason. The citizens of the Mistake by the Lake were calling Brady Quinn the greatest Browns QB since Bernie Kosar after he had thrown a few passes against guys that are now volunteer assistant coaches at their old junior high schools, working for a free lunch ticket and whatever gas they can siphon out of the team bus while the driver is napping. Quinn may wind up being great in the long run, but do you think maybe people were overweighting his performance in the pre-season a little?

If you listened to talk shows this week Michigan might be the worst team ever, ND should drop their football program altogether and Oklahoma should average 80 a game this year. There is such a long time between the end of the last season and the beginning of this one that is spent analyzing bowl games and recruits, chatting on message boards and arguing in bars that when meaningful games finally come around people extrapolate the entire season based on one game. So its up to us to take advantage of the opportunity.

My personal pick for overreaction team of the weekend is T-Tennessee (the stutter is in honor of the band Arrested Development). The Vols had a cross country trip to face a team that may win the championship of the best conference in college football this year. Most people woke up Sunday and read that Cal beat T-Tennessee by 14, but keep in mind that included a punt returned by Desean Jackson that should have been kicked out of bounds. T-Tennessee comes home to face a Southern Miss team that shouldn't on the same field, only favored by 10.5. Fullmer is starting to get heat, they are pissed off they lost and should bury that number by halftime.

Oh and although it is my policy to only make one pick per week, if you have three testicles take TCU over Texas. Straight up.